World War III ?

According to Sam Gardiner, retired Colonel of the US Air Force and the one running the initial war games at the National War College that impressed President George W. Bush so much that he decided to invade Iraq, predicts that the US will attack Iran by the end of February. Gardiner, who was also involved in James Fallows' "Will Iran Be Next?" Atlantic Monthly article from 2004, outlines four additional steps before a strike can be contemplated:

1./ A media group within the National Security Council to create outrage against Iran, will begin to state the case for an attack.

2./ Deployment of anti-missile defense equipment to Israel.

3./ Deployment of some of the newly arriving Army brigades in Iraq to the Iranian border. The function of these would be to hold off the Iranian army from Iraq.

4./ Deployment of US Airforce tankers to obscure places like Bulgaria, as a final step before the attacks. They would then be involved in refuelling of the USAF B2 bombers going into Iran.

These would be some of the developments towards an attack against Iran. Steps which I believe will be looked upon by the historians as the beginning of the Third World War.

http://www.counterpunch.org/gardiner01162007.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200412/fallows

Rumours

The rumours of an impending attack on Iran, and an escalation of the middle east crisis, are growing thicker. John Pike of GlobalSecurity claims that yet another aircraft carrier, the "John Stennis", is being transferred to the Persian Gulf. This is in addition to the one that is already there, the "Dwight D. Eisenhower". Moreover, the incident earlier this week where a Japanese sea liner collided with a US submarine is being blamed by a Russian Admiral to be a further sign for preparations for war.

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2007/Video_Recent_US_actions_could_signal_0112.html

http://www.globalsecurity.org/

http://www.kuna.net.kw/Home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=940826

Preparations for war in Iran?

Jerome Corsi describes further the naval build-up in the Persian Gulf and the march to war with Iran. It's interesting to see that this article does not come from any leftist peace organisation, but rather from deep within the neo-conservative nest around US President George W. Bush. Corsi, who co-authored the book "Unfit for command: Swift boat veterans speak out about John Kerry" apparently has a direct link to the White House. I tend to agree with George Ure on the blog "Urban Survival" when he says that the tactic behind the massive presence in the Gulf is to make the Iranians make the first move. I fear what will happen if the Iranians sink one of these american aircraft carriers that are As Michael Klare recently said: "Beware of Empires in decline". It will be interesting to see how rapid the imminent collapse will be.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

http://www.commondreams.org/views06/1016-35.htm

The Geopolitics of Oil

The understanding of our predicament concerning our energy dependence begins to kick in into the ruling class, both here in Europe and in the United States. The US Senate Commitee on Energy and Natural Resources held a hearing earlier this week. The hearing was into a report entitled "The Geopolitics of Oil" and as Richard Bell from the Post-Carbon Institute describes it gave "an almost palpable sense of graveness and alarm that lent a chill to the room". The United States imports somewhere around 65% of its oil and most of this oil comes from countries like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria where they don't want to be in the first place.

Now you can always have ideas about what they use all this energy for (the United States basically use all this oil to run their Interstate Highway system fully furnished with all their Drive-In utopia), but it really misses the point. The bottomline here is that all their economy and ours as a result is dependent on imported petroleum, and with it our capacity to project power. Without energy we are nothing. In fact, as the Senate report rightly points out: "It's the Achilles-heel of our whole society". These are our reasons for waging war on countries like Iran.

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/836

Strike against Iran?

Very interesting piece by Michael Klare in Monday's issue of "The Nation". Klare, a lecturer in war and peace studies at Amherst in Massachussetts and author of the book "Blood and Oil", discusses the recent change of personnel within the US Cental Command (Centcom). Money quote:

If engagement with Iran and Syria was even remotely on the agenda, Abizaid is exactly the man you'd want on the job at Centcom overseeing US forces and strategy in the region. But if that's not on the agenda, if you're thinking instead of using force against Iran and/or Syria, then Admiral Fallon is exactly the man you'd want at Centcom.

Klare believes that the US will escalate the Iraq conflict and strike against Iran within 2007. I believe that the American's will have no problems getting Angela Merkel, Tony Blair/Gordon Brown and possibly a newly elected Nicolas Sarkozy on the train as well. These Europeans are beginning to understand how important energy are for their societies. When the oil price were 20 US$ per barrel they had a relatively high influence in the world even without an actual military, but when oil is price is at 55 US$ their influence on the world scene is substantially less important. The geopolitical reasons for striking against Iran are very easy to see. It's there where the prize is. 2007 proves to become a very interesting year.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070122/klare

Just a short post today. I was working out yesterday and I went running in the running machine down at the Gym. Good after all the holiday eating.

Hjalmar Bergman

I'm reading an old book from the 1920's, "The boss, Mrs Ingeborg" by Hjalmar Bergman, and it's interesting to notice how well the writer describes women. He gets underneath their skin in an almost scary kind of way. He wrote the book in his forties and it's remarkable how the book deals with older women as its main characters. They are described, not as in today's society, as being ready to die, but are in every way lovable and nice. They are almost devine. The style feels for modern reading a bit old fashioned, but I see clear links to works by Flaubert and Maupassant. Again, a book is a result of its time, and since I like to read about old times, I give this one high marks.

Dead Scared

I saw a DVD movie yesterday, "Dead Scared" by Rolfe Kanevsky. The movie is a comedy/horror about a few young kids that are about to get accepted in their american "Fraternity" and what they have to do to be just that. The level of the jokes was not high enough for me to take this completely seriously. I laughed, though, when one of the male characters, dressed as a dog, was trying to seduce a female counterpart, and he said something about "playing and hide the bone" and she replied "I think I've already found it!". In total, I recommend the scriptwriter/director to grow a few years older before he thinks about making his next movie.

I'm going home to my parents later today. It will be nice to finally have some time for my books and I really look forward to this. I'm sorry that I will not post anything until Tuesday.

Del Amitri

I listened to an old album by Del Amitri yesterday, "Change everything". It had been a while since I last listened and I must say that the production is boring and that the general impression of the album is that it's not a good one. Having said that I was positively surprised when the album was almost over and the first chords of the last song began, "Sometimes I just have to say your name". This sounds exactly the way Moneybrother always wanted to but never dared. It would make a perfect cover for him either in Swedish or in its original language to top his otherwise good performances. I think I'm going to tell him this.

Show me love

I watched an old DVD yesterday. I saw "Show me love" from Lukas Moodyson with Alexandra Dahlström and Rebecca Liljeström. The film is about a small town in western Sweden, about the kids who live there, about their dreams and how they're desperate to get out. So desperate that they might do anything to make it. The film is, I think, Lukas Moodyson's first and I think his best. The dialogue flows smoothly, the characters are nicely described and when the film is over there is this positive feeling that overwhelms you. Perhaps the movie is more about Lukas' own youth than the kids in the movie. Nevertheless, "Show me love" is one of the true classics of Swedish contemporary films.

A simple crime

I'm reading a book by Theodor Kallifatides, a Greek immigrant who came to Sweden in the 1960's. Although he speaks Greek as his mothertongue he still manages to write books in Swedish. It seems as though the first part of the book was a badly sketched copy of what native Swedish crime writers usually are doing very well, a good plot with good descriptions of both people and places. I was indeed tempted to throw the book away, but after 150 pages or so something happens. The language becomes better and more descriptive. Not only that but the book also begins a philosophical discussion about the justice system. A discussion which puts Kallifatides amongst other contemporary Greek thinkers like Georgios Karavanas. In all I can't help but thinking that he had the first part lying round in his computer and that he simply finished the book off one day when he felt inspired.